Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Of Polls and Perception
Once again, sorry for the long layoff.
We've seen a new CBS/USAToday/Gallup poll suggesting that George Bush enjoys a decent lead in the election. 201k does not believe this poll.
Many questions have been raised recently about flawed polling techniques -- especially those used by Gallup. These include oversampling of Republicans and questionable methodology for determining "likely voters". Compare this poll to several others which show the race as a statistical dead heat, and you start to wonder a bit.
201k has been around long enough to have developed a level of cynicism that's both thorough and uncanny. We have yet to be disappointed by being pleasantly surprised.
We thought the election of 2000 was the nadir of American politics, but fear that 2004 will surpass it. Months ago we brought upon ourselves an avalanche of email by expressing the concern that the Bush administration would not leave office even if they were voted out, and, more to the point, that the media wouldn't object. Certainly nothing that has happened since has changed our mind about this. When a sitting Republican president and his surrogates openly suggest that a vote for their Democratic opponent is a vote for terrorists and/or a terrorist attack, they have entered a new realm of power-playing for power's sake. Worse, when the only objections raised to such talk appear on the editorial pages of dusty gray newspapers, you've entered a new realm of democratic irresponsibility.
Neither development is conducive to the survival of the republic. We may indeed be entering a new era in America. Perhaps we already did, and 201k missed it. How ironic if our mistake was in not being cynical enough.
We have trouble believing that George Bush and the Republican party will give up the executive branch just because a majority of voters -- even electoral college voters -- choose someone else. They paid too much for it.
Simply put, we believe these polls inaccurately suggest that Bush is ahead in the election so that it will seem plausible when the Republicans steal it.
Remember, these are businessmen, not "public servants". Their way of thinking is this: better to win the election and face questions about its legitimacy than lose it and not face those questions. Win first, deal with the questions later -- that's what they did in 2000, and that's what they'll do this November.
As it happens, a friend emailed last night with a thought from her mother that surpasses even our own cynicism -- no mean feat. The mother, you should know, came to America as a teenager fleeing the Nazi invasion of Poland. Here's what she had to say:
We've seen a new CBS/USAToday/Gallup poll suggesting that George Bush enjoys a decent lead in the election. 201k does not believe this poll.
Many questions have been raised recently about flawed polling techniques -- especially those used by Gallup. These include oversampling of Republicans and questionable methodology for determining "likely voters". Compare this poll to several others which show the race as a statistical dead heat, and you start to wonder a bit.
201k has been around long enough to have developed a level of cynicism that's both thorough and uncanny. We have yet to be disappointed by being pleasantly surprised.
We thought the election of 2000 was the nadir of American politics, but fear that 2004 will surpass it. Months ago we brought upon ourselves an avalanche of email by expressing the concern that the Bush administration would not leave office even if they were voted out, and, more to the point, that the media wouldn't object. Certainly nothing that has happened since has changed our mind about this. When a sitting Republican president and his surrogates openly suggest that a vote for their Democratic opponent is a vote for terrorists and/or a terrorist attack, they have entered a new realm of power-playing for power's sake. Worse, when the only objections raised to such talk appear on the editorial pages of dusty gray newspapers, you've entered a new realm of democratic irresponsibility.
Neither development is conducive to the survival of the republic. We may indeed be entering a new era in America. Perhaps we already did, and 201k missed it. How ironic if our mistake was in not being cynical enough.
We have trouble believing that George Bush and the Republican party will give up the executive branch just because a majority of voters -- even electoral college voters -- choose someone else. They paid too much for it.
Simply put, we believe these polls inaccurately suggest that Bush is ahead in the election so that it will seem plausible when the Republicans steal it.
Remember, these are businessmen, not "public servants". Their way of thinking is this: better to win the election and face questions about its legitimacy than lose it and not face those questions. Win first, deal with the questions later -- that's what they did in 2000, and that's what they'll do this November.
As it happens, a friend emailed last night with a thought from her mother that surpasses even our own cynicism -- no mean feat. The mother, you should know, came to America as a teenager fleeing the Nazi invasion of Poland. Here's what she had to say:
"...[my friends in] my mother's generation who have survived WWII and moved here for the democracy are HORRIFIED. Of course my mother thinks the world is a bad place and we have had it good for a while so why am I surprised? She doesn't think it will correct in her life time."How's that, folks? The world's intrinsically evil, and though we may have fled fascism to democracy for a while, evil always catches up -- and didn't you know that?
Saturday, September 18, 2004
Grab-bag
First off, 201k apologizes for the lack of entries here recently, and appreciates the emails encouraging us to get going again. Real life has once again sidetracked our quest to save democracy. More as the election approaches, we hope.
Secondly, we've been asked about providing RSS feeds, and would be happy to comply if some kind, technically savvy soul would explain how exactly we would do that.
And now, a few thoughts:
1. The Bush campaign and its flunkies claim that John Kerry will not keep American safe from terrorism. This is the core of their re-election strategy: create as much fear as possible in the minds of voters, and paint Kerry as unable to protect them.
The opposite is true. The world is a far more dangerous and complex place than George W. Bush has ever understood. He is manifestly unable to comprehend and deal with it, and has amply demonstrated so.
This should surprise no one, since there is nothing in his record to suggest that George W. Bush has ever had to live in the real world. He has never had to live by or follow the rules the rest of us have to, or, more importantly, had to deal with the ramifications of his actions the way the rest of us have to. He simply doesn't get it, and never has.
And John Kerry should be saying so every single day of this campaign.
2. The relevence of the Vietnam war -- and, by extention, Watergate -- to this election is what each candidate took away from it. John Kerry, and indeed most Americans, learned that if leadership does not properly lead then the mission becomes corrupt and dangerous, and that things rapidly escalate out of control, harming a lot of innocent people, helping no one, and leading to disastrous failure.
The members of the Bush administration -- and let's not forget many of them were in the Nixon administration -- took away from Vietnam and Watergate the lesson that if you control the message you control the reality.
That, Poor Readers, is where we are now.
Secondly, we've been asked about providing RSS feeds, and would be happy to comply if some kind, technically savvy soul would explain how exactly we would do that.
And now, a few thoughts:
1. The Bush campaign and its flunkies claim that John Kerry will not keep American safe from terrorism. This is the core of their re-election strategy: create as much fear as possible in the minds of voters, and paint Kerry as unable to protect them.
The opposite is true. The world is a far more dangerous and complex place than George W. Bush has ever understood. He is manifestly unable to comprehend and deal with it, and has amply demonstrated so.
This should surprise no one, since there is nothing in his record to suggest that George W. Bush has ever had to live in the real world. He has never had to live by or follow the rules the rest of us have to, or, more importantly, had to deal with the ramifications of his actions the way the rest of us have to. He simply doesn't get it, and never has.
And John Kerry should be saying so every single day of this campaign.
2. The relevence of the Vietnam war -- and, by extention, Watergate -- to this election is what each candidate took away from it. John Kerry, and indeed most Americans, learned that if leadership does not properly lead then the mission becomes corrupt and dangerous, and that things rapidly escalate out of control, harming a lot of innocent people, helping no one, and leading to disastrous failure.
The members of the Bush administration -- and let's not forget many of them were in the Nixon administration -- took away from Vietnam and Watergate the lesson that if you control the message you control the reality.
That, Poor Readers, is where we are now.
Thursday, September 09, 2004
Finally, the Truth
Previous stories this week -- especially the disgraceful one in the NY Times -- have "buried the lead" in an avalanche of irrelevant detail and White House talking points. Today, finally, Pete Yost of A.P. puts the lead in the first paragraph, and tells the story straight.
It's all in here -- everything the media has pretended not to see: George Bush was derelict of duty, his record was wiped clean (one record was "back dated" it says here) and, more importantly--HE'S BEEN LYING ABOUT IT FOR 35 YEARS. Worse -- he's got his aides lying about it for him.
He didn't "skip his physical because he knew he wasn't going to be flying". He was ordered to take it BEFORE his transfer was approved and he BLEW IT OFF. When the s*** hit the fan he called Daddy to straighten it out at the top. Then he never reported for duty in Alabama anyway -- except to get his teeth fixed.
You know what? We wouldn't care about this spoiled, lying rich kid skipping his guard duty 35 years ago except that he prances around like Douglas MacArthur, and, unbelieveably, let his political operatives attack the record of John Kerry -- a guy who actually went to Vietnam.
Now he's putting guys like Dan Bartlett out there to cover for him instead of standing up like a man and telling the truth. Bartlett got blind-sided this week, having to say "I must have misspoke" to cover for a lie he told on Bush's behalf. Then he got humiliated on 60 Minutes, having to say "he can't explain" how the White House failed to release all the documents as they'd claimed.
Bush has been coddled by others his whole life, and even now has no problem sending the help out to humiliate themselves over his lies.
Memo to George: be a man, not a weasel. Call a press conference and admit you screwed up 35 years ago. Take your chances with telling the truth for once in your life. It's called HONOR.
It's all in here -- everything the media has pretended not to see: George Bush was derelict of duty, his record was wiped clean (one record was "back dated" it says here) and, more importantly--HE'S BEEN LYING ABOUT IT FOR 35 YEARS. Worse -- he's got his aides lying about it for him.
He didn't "skip his physical because he knew he wasn't going to be flying". He was ordered to take it BEFORE his transfer was approved and he BLEW IT OFF. When the s*** hit the fan he called Daddy to straighten it out at the top. Then he never reported for duty in Alabama anyway -- except to get his teeth fixed.
You know what? We wouldn't care about this spoiled, lying rich kid skipping his guard duty 35 years ago except that he prances around like Douglas MacArthur, and, unbelieveably, let his political operatives attack the record of John Kerry -- a guy who actually went to Vietnam.
Now he's putting guys like Dan Bartlett out there to cover for him instead of standing up like a man and telling the truth. Bartlett got blind-sided this week, having to say "I must have misspoke" to cover for a lie he told on Bush's behalf. Then he got humiliated on 60 Minutes, having to say "he can't explain" how the White House failed to release all the documents as they'd claimed.
Bush has been coddled by others his whole life, and even now has no problem sending the help out to humiliate themselves over his lies.
Memo to George: be a man, not a weasel. Call a press conference and admit you screwed up 35 years ago. Take your chances with telling the truth for once in your life. It's called HONOR.
But Who Will Remember?
When, inevitably, the US suffers a terrorist attack similar to the horrific one in Russia last week--and we will--remember this:
September 9, 2004
Effort to Renew Weapons Ban Falters on Hill
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
WASHINGTON, Sept. 8 - Despite widespread popular support, the federal law banning the sale of 19 kinds of semiautomatic assault weapons is almost certain to expire on Monday, the result of intense lobbying by the National Rifle Association and the complicated election-year politics of Washington.
While President Bush has expressed support for legislation extending the ban and has said he would sign it into law, he has not pressured lawmakers to act, leading critics to accuse him of trying to have it both ways.
Saturday, September 04, 2004
An Open Letter to John Kerry
Sen. Kerry,
The Bush campaign and their surrogates are LYING. People need to see you call them on it.
A few examples:
On Thursday night George W. Bush assured the country -- on national TV--that he'd lower the cost of healthcare for all Americans. Then the very next day, late on the Friday evening of Labor Day weekend, his administration announced the largest premium increase in the Medicare program's history.
In other words: he lied. It's a lie when you say something you know isn't true.
They said "no one could have foreseen" the attacks of 9/11. That was a LIE.
They say Kerry wants to raise taxes by "$900 billion". That's a LIE.
They said "all the evidence" suggested Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That's a LIE.
They said their Medicare prescription drug plan would cost $400 billion. That was a LIE.
They say Kerry first supported the No Child Left behind Act and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry supported NAFTA and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry supported the Iraq War and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry voted against "every weapons system". That's a LIE.
They said Kerry didn't come under fire and wasn't really wounded in Vietnam. That's a LIE.
Dick Cheney said -- on national TV -- that Bush's tax cuts have created jobs and helped the economy. That's a LIE.
Arnold Schwarzenegger said he became a Republican after listening to a televised debate between Hubert Humphrey and Richard Nixon in 1968. That's a LIE.
The Bush administration had the EPA claim the air was safe around Ground Zero in New York after 9/11. That was a LIE.
They say we have a coalition in Iraq. That's a LIE.
George Bush has repeatedly said we went to war in Iraq after Saddam "kicked out" weapons inspectors. That's a LIE.
They've said "everyone thought Iraq had WMD". That's a LIE.
They said they knew where the WMD were. That was a LIE.
They said Iraq had ties to al Qaeda. That was a LIE.
They said they would exhaust all possibilities before resorting to war. That was a LIE.
George Bush said he would never put the budget into deficit. That was a LIE.
George Bush denies he wants to privatize Social Security. That's a LIE.
They claim their program called "Clear Skies" will improve air pollution. That's a LIE.
They claimed that breaking down the wall between foreign espionage investigations and domestic criminal investigations was necessary to fight terrorism. That's a LIE.
They claimed they had evidence to support charges of terrorism against a number of people who they eventually had to let go -- for lack of evidence. They were LYING.
They say they've made the country safer. That's a LIE.
Senator, it is imperative that you show the American people that you will call them on these lies DIRECTLY. The people need to know their president will stand up for what is right, and that includes calling a lie a lie.
The Bush campaign and their surrogates are LYING. People need to see you call them on it.
A few examples:
On Thursday night George W. Bush assured the country -- on national TV--that he'd lower the cost of healthcare for all Americans. Then the very next day, late on the Friday evening of Labor Day weekend, his administration announced the largest premium increase in the Medicare program's history.
In other words: he lied. It's a lie when you say something you know isn't true.
They said "no one could have foreseen" the attacks of 9/11. That was a LIE.
They say Kerry wants to raise taxes by "$900 billion". That's a LIE.
They said "all the evidence" suggested Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That's a LIE.
They said their Medicare prescription drug plan would cost $400 billion. That was a LIE.
They say Kerry first supported the No Child Left behind Act and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry supported NAFTA and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry supported the Iraq War and now doesn't. That's a LIE.
They say Kerry voted against "every weapons system". That's a LIE.
They said Kerry didn't come under fire and wasn't really wounded in Vietnam. That's a LIE.
Dick Cheney said -- on national TV -- that Bush's tax cuts have created jobs and helped the economy. That's a LIE.
Arnold Schwarzenegger said he became a Republican after listening to a televised debate between Hubert Humphrey and Richard Nixon in 1968. That's a LIE.
The Bush administration had the EPA claim the air was safe around Ground Zero in New York after 9/11. That was a LIE.
They say we have a coalition in Iraq. That's a LIE.
George Bush has repeatedly said we went to war in Iraq after Saddam "kicked out" weapons inspectors. That's a LIE.
They've said "everyone thought Iraq had WMD". That's a LIE.
They said they knew where the WMD were. That was a LIE.
They said Iraq had ties to al Qaeda. That was a LIE.
They said they would exhaust all possibilities before resorting to war. That was a LIE.
George Bush said he would never put the budget into deficit. That was a LIE.
George Bush denies he wants to privatize Social Security. That's a LIE.
They claim their program called "Clear Skies" will improve air pollution. That's a LIE.
They claimed that breaking down the wall between foreign espionage investigations and domestic criminal investigations was necessary to fight terrorism. That's a LIE.
They claimed they had evidence to support charges of terrorism against a number of people who they eventually had to let go -- for lack of evidence. They were LYING.
They say they've made the country safer. That's a LIE.
Senator, it is imperative that you show the American people that you will call them on these lies DIRECTLY. The people need to know their president will stand up for what is right, and that includes calling a lie a lie.
Thursday, September 02, 2004
Unreality TV
Welcome to the Republican National Convention, where Bush's tax cuts are creating millions of new jobs, the war in Iraq is going brilliantly, and the guy who didn't avoid serving in Vietnam is the "girlie man".
Oh, and Kerry is a flip-flopper because:
1. He voted for the Leave No Child Behind Act, then objected -- along with nearly everyone else -- when it wasn't funded in the budget;
2. He supported NAFTA but thinks it should be reexamined to deal with global labor inequities;
3. He supported the Patriot Act because the Bush administration insisted it was necessary, and then realized -- along with nearly everyone else -- that that he'd been grossly misled, and that John Ashcroft (who hasn't caught a terrorist yet) would use it primarily to spy on Americans.
4. He supported the resolution to authorize President Bush to go to war if necessary, then realized -- along with nearly everyone else -- that he'd been grossly misled, and that the power had been terribly abused.
How we envy the Republicans; it must be nice to be able to create your own reality when the real one doesn't comply with political ideology.
Oh, and Kerry is a flip-flopper because:
1. He voted for the Leave No Child Behind Act, then objected -- along with nearly everyone else -- when it wasn't funded in the budget;
2. He supported NAFTA but thinks it should be reexamined to deal with global labor inequities;
3. He supported the Patriot Act because the Bush administration insisted it was necessary, and then realized -- along with nearly everyone else -- that that he'd been grossly misled, and that John Ashcroft (who hasn't caught a terrorist yet) would use it primarily to spy on Americans.
4. He supported the resolution to authorize President Bush to go to war if necessary, then realized -- along with nearly everyone else -- that he'd been grossly misled, and that the power had been terribly abused.
How we envy the Republicans; it must be nice to be able to create your own reality when the real one doesn't comply with political ideology.
