Sunday, September 17, 2006
Patrick Walking Away With It
A new Boston Globe/CBS4-TV poll confirms what became inevitable after the Globe's endorsement last Sunday: Patrick is running away with the Democratic nomination for Governor.
Reilly has fallen to third, calling into question our prediction that Gabrielli would be the surprise third-place finisher. It's still possible that Gabrielli's numbers are more virtual than real, but of course now that's also true for Reilly, whose support among unions has been as shallow as it has been wide; they may now decide it's over and either not vote, or vote for Not Tom.
Tom himself may decide that, which presents interesting -- though probably academic -- possibilities for Gabrielli. But it matters not; as we said yesterday, Patrick will win, and what happens after that is a mystery.
On that subject, two tidbits from the poll caught our eye; the first is that Deborah Goldberg has a lead that's outside the margin of error over Tim Murray, suggesting the real possibility of a Patrick/Goldberg ticket. That plays fine chez 201k; we hope it does as well throughout the state.
The second item of note was the response to the question, "Do you prefer an immediate rollback of the state income tax rate, a gradual rollback, or leaving the tax rate the same?" An astounding 30% of "likely Democratic primary voters" defy self-interest (and good for them!) by turning down a tax break. But a disquieting (though unsurprising) 63% favor either an immediate or gradual rollback. That's among likely Democratic primary voters -- most of whom support Patrick.
What, we wonder, are the numbers on that question among all likely voters?
Reilly has fallen to third, calling into question our prediction that Gabrielli would be the surprise third-place finisher. It's still possible that Gabrielli's numbers are more virtual than real, but of course now that's also true for Reilly, whose support among unions has been as shallow as it has been wide; they may now decide it's over and either not vote, or vote for Not Tom.
Tom himself may decide that, which presents interesting -- though probably academic -- possibilities for Gabrielli. But it matters not; as we said yesterday, Patrick will win, and what happens after that is a mystery.
On that subject, two tidbits from the poll caught our eye; the first is that Deborah Goldberg has a lead that's outside the margin of error over Tim Murray, suggesting the real possibility of a Patrick/Goldberg ticket. That plays fine chez 201k; we hope it does as well throughout the state.
The second item of note was the response to the question, "Do you prefer an immediate rollback of the state income tax rate, a gradual rollback, or leaving the tax rate the same?" An astounding 30% of "likely Democratic primary voters" defy self-interest (and good for them!) by turning down a tax break. But a disquieting (though unsurprising) 63% favor either an immediate or gradual rollback. That's among likely Democratic primary voters -- most of whom support Patrick.
What, we wonder, are the numbers on that question among all likely voters?
